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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
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As the first step in the modeling process, we identify the independent and dependent variables. The independent variable is time t , measured in days. We consider two related sets of dependent variables. The first set of dependent variables counts people in each of the groups, each as a function of time:.
The ongoing epidemic of COVID first found in China has reinforced the need to develop epidemiological models capable of describing the progression of the disease to be of use in the formulation of mitigation policies. Here, this problem is addressed using a metapopulation approach to consider the inhomogeneous transmission of the spread arising from a variety of reasons, like the distribution of local epidemic onset times or of the transmission rates. We show that these contributions can be incorporated into a susceptible-infected-recovered framework through a time-dependent transmission rate. Thus, the reproduction number decreases with time despite the population dynamics remaining uniform and the depletion of susceptible individuals is small. The obtained results are consistent with the early subexponential growth observed in the cumulated number of confirmed cases even in the absence of containment measures.